Skip to main menu | Skip to content
spider trap - please do not go here or you will be locked out of this site

Outlook: Bonds

Threat of a sharp decline to 92.650

September 17, 2006

Chart of outlook for Australian bonds as at 15 Sept 2006

The decline in April broke a long-term upward trendline to signal that a test of the multi-decade channel support around the 2000 low of 92.650 was now possible.

Short-term action suggests that a corrective rally is ending now, a rally that can be viewed as a retest of the breakpoint. Therefore, price is at risk of falling sharply.

The next long-term cycle is due to rollover in March 2007. However, the next long-term vibration (shown on the chart) is not due to rollover till 2008. This mismatch between the two time-measuring techniques provides for a couple of paths that may be followed.

I favour the more aggressive view that 92.650 will be tested in March 2007 and that price will then range for the next twelve months until the time vibration rolls over. While the multi-decade channel support holds, prices will then have the opportunity for another rally.

Only a rise through 94.600 will suggest that the decline may be avoided.

Comments:

February 17, 2007 12:06 PM    Anonymous Anonymous said...    
Watch subject. Bush goes ballistic about other countries being evil and dangerous, because they have weapons of mass destruction. But, he insists on building up even a more deadly supply of nuclear arms right here in the US. What do you think? How does that work in a democracy again? How does being more threatening make us more likeable?Isn't
the country with the most weapons the biggest threat to the rest of the world? When one country is the biggest threat to the rest of the world, isn't that likely to be the most hated country?
If ever there was ever a time in our nation's history that called for a change, this is it!
The more people that the government puts in jails, the safer we are told to think we are. The real terrorists are wherever they are, but they aren't living in a country with bars on the windows. We are.
Make a comment

The Chart Manager is produced by Stafford Blue Pty Ltd ACN 30 114 110 173. The recommendations contained in this publication are of a general advice nature and are prepared without consideration to any subscriber's particular financial situation. Before acting on the recommendations contained herein, subscribers should consider the relevance of these recommendations to their own financial situation, and if necessary, seek independent professional advice. The analysis and recommendations contained in this report are derived solely from the application of technical analysis techniques. Stafford Blue Pty Ltd believes that the information is this report is correct and opinions, conclusions and recommendations are reasonably held or made as at the time of its compilation, but no warranty is made as to accuracy, reliability or completeness. To the extent permitted by law, Stafford Blue Pty Ltd and its employees do not accept liability to any person for loss or damage arising from the use of this report.